The Election
This weekend, New Zealanders will be exercising their democratic voice, heading to the polls to cast their votes and deciding who will run the country for the next three years. Interestingly, just under one million of us have already voted, over the course of the last two weeks, leaving two million people, to do the same between now and when the polls close on Saturday.
For those unfamiliar with our electoral process, we operate under a Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system, which gives people two votes - one for the party they support and then another for the local candidate they would like to back in their electorate. Each party is fighting to secure the biggest share of party and electoral candidate votes so they can hold the biggest share of seats in parliament. This process usually means that no single party can get enough votes to govern on their own and so in the weeks after the election, the bigger and smaller parties conduct a sort of political courting ritual to work out who can get together to form a working Government - this is done through a formal coalition or a confidence and supply agreement.
Tomorrow night the results of this rather complicated affair will be counted, the country will have decided and we will either have something new or something vaguely resembling what we have had over the past six years. As far as elections go, this one will be interesting as the two major players (Labour and National) have struggled to independently capture the attention of the masses, meaning that the make-up of our next Government could be very heavily influenced by some of our smaller political parties.
While the election is big news for New Zealanders (well some of us at least) it also appears to be big news for migrants, including those who are already here and those looking to head in our direction in the near future. I have canvassed numerous questions over the last few weeks as to what an election means in terms of the Visa process, what changes might come and where that leaves people, who are either thinking about the move or possibly halfway through it.
Not an easy question to answer, but for the sake of those still on the fence about whether to jump over or climb down, I do have a few thoughts to share.
Change or No Change
This years campaign has been a particularly interesting one and while it might have started out with a clear winner, things have changed rapidly in the lead up to the big day. It would be fair to say that New Zealand has struggled a bit since emerging from the Covid era and there is a definite change in the mood of the general populace. For some migrants, looking at NZ from afar, you would probably wonder what on earth we are worried about, but for the average New Zealander, this election will represent the potential to move away from what many locals have considered a bit of a rut.
Even with polls bouncing back and forth, there is still very likely to be a change, but that change might not be as clear-cut as first thought. National, who still holds the lead in the polls, have lost some ground to Labour and that has opened the very real possibility of National having to form a Government with the aid of two smaller parties (Act and NZ First). That could be a very interesting trio of personalities to manage.
For most New Zealanders this election is less about specific policies and opportunities and more a choice as to whether to change things or stick with the status quo. My personal view is that there will be a change and regardless of what that change brings, the change itself is what the country needs at this moment in time.
Change is Slow
On the assumption we vote the incumbents out, the new leadership (whatever it might look like) wont move to change anything on the immigration front in a hurry. National has been fairly light on its ideas for what the immigration space should look like and so far all we have seen are some proposed advances for the tech sector with various “talent” Visas being announced for this area. Parent’s will also get a slice of the pie with a dedicated long-term Visitor Visa to spend extended periods of time with their children and grandchildren (Labour is offering something similar). These are all fringe policies however and will simply be bolted on to the existing suite of Visa options.
What is missing, is a bigger picture view and plan for the core categories (Skilled Migrant, Family and Business) and then a review of the administration itself (Immigration New Zealand). The general approach from National appears to be focused on targeting key skills and making New Zealand more competitive in terms of the hunt for global talent - good ideas, even better bumper stickers, but there is not a lot of substance in any of it. We also need to see what changes might be made to INZ, which has been plagued with processing issues, inconsistent decision making and a world of IT and system nightmares.
Historically both parties have waxed and waned on being pro or anti migration, although the reality is that ideology very rarely drives policy in real terms. Labour, as an example, started its immigration rebalance by claiming it would remove employers relying on lower skilled migration, by increasing training for locals and then directing its attention to attracting the best and the brightest. Ironically in the last 12 months we have seen record levels of lower skilled migrants coming across the border to fill lower skilled roles and they have even created Residence pathways for occupations that wouldn’t meet the skills threshold under existing skilled migration categories.
The key thing to remember, as a prospective migrant, is that no one is going to wake up this Sunday morning to a new immigration system. Any change that will occur will take time to roll out and any new Government taking up the reigns will also have a long list of competing issues, with immigration featuring relatively low on that list. It is impossible to give a clear timeline, but I wouldn’t expect to see much movement on existing policies for at least three to six months. I also suspect that National will have to think long and hard about whether it simply tweaks what is there or starts afresh…no small decision to make.
The Only Way is Up
Obviously if we see a change in Government, the next question to ask, is what impact those changes will have - will things become easier, harder or stay the same?
Well, without a clear set of policy guidelines there is no way to really tell, but if I was to look at the settings we have now, against the history of the various policies and Governments who have administered them, I think we will see some changes that potentially improve the process overall.
Skilled Migrants - the current settings (introduced over the last two years) offer two pathways, one based on points and the other without points but both targeting employability. The new SMC system is different, but at its core relies on the same basic idea - you need to secure the right kind of employment here. The biggest change is the move to a “work to residence” model for most, and away from being able to apply for Residence directly. A potential change here would see that work to residence process removed, with a shift back to something more immediate, allowing applicants to avoid the need to work here for a period of time. The work to residence model has often been criticized as being far less competitive when other countries are offering more direct pathway to Residence for a greater number of people.
Family - the current Government had signaled a review of partnership policy (yet to be done) and so whether that still happens, with a new party in charge remains to be seen. I personally think it is long overdue and there are plenty of ways this policy can be improved. The current parent category could be overhauled as well, as the requirements are onerous for most children, acting as sponsors, and it is a very complicated, messy application process. Overall however the family categories will be lower priority for any incoming Government.
Business - there has been significant push-back from our industry, potential applicants and other stakeholders to the current Active Investor Visa and so it is very likely this will be changed with any change in Government. National has always had a focus on immigration delivering overseas investment, so they will want to see this made simpler, easier and more attractive. Other business categories such as the Entrepreneur Visa have been due for an overhaul, since they were first introduced but again these may not be at the top of the priority list.
Temporary Visas - National has made some noise about reworking the Accredited Employer Work Visa scheme, which has come under fire from all directions and they have hinted at a better system for Student Visas to get the export education sector moving again. Apart from these two areas, I dont see a lot of room to change anything else in the temporary Visa space.
Decisions, Decisions
I have done this for a long time and I have seen Governments come and go along with the various policies, categories and criteria that trail along behind them. Regardless of what most Governments will advertise or promote in the run up to an election or even when they are in power and delivering on those pledges, the very simple reality is that we continue to need skills across a wide range of sectors. Even with the labour market softening up in recent months, there is still a desperate hunt for talent.
My advice to anyone sitting on the fence, unsure whether they should move or not, is to avoid letting factors like the election influence your thinking. Work in the here and now, with what you can control. We can assess you against the existing rules and of course keep you abreast of changes as they occur, but as always the quicker you move, while you are eligible to do so, the better your chances of making it successfully.
Having a guide in the process who can interpret change, and help you to adjust your plan is however going to be more important than ever, but thankfully as you are reading this article you are already in the right place.
Personally I will be gathering some good friends around on Saturday, and firing up the BBQ (despite it still being a little chilly) for the election night activities and watching carefully to see what the NZ public decides in terms of who gets to drive the bus for the next three years.
Until next week!
