On The Horizon

Predicting what might happen in the NZ immigration space, is a bit like predicting the weather…you hear the reports, you prepare for sunny weather and then you end up completely soaked. What appears to be on the horizon, in terms of a squall or a sunny day can rapidly change and what the forecasters (read those active social media speculators) might predict is coming your way, is usually not quite the same when it actually arrives.

I have previously written about some of the immigration changes that we expect to see in the next twelve months and thanks to having spent over two decades in this industry, I belong to a number of industry groups that have been consulting on some of the proposals the Minister is looking to roll out.

There is clearly a lot on the immigration policy agenda for this year, and we have already seen a fair few changes being rolled out (and its only April). So in this weeks article, we are taking a look at what else might be on the New Zealand immigration horizon.

Parents Getting A Boost?

A long term Visitor Visa for parents was a key part of both the National and Act Parties campaign promises, largely to swing a large pool of voters back in their direction. Much like the RV 2021 was a thinly veiled attempt by the former Government to buy favour with the voting age populace, the proposed “Parent Boost” Visa was another campaign trinket. However promising a Visa like this is easy, delivering it, not so much. The idea is pretty simple…give parents to migrants who are living here, a long-term Visa allowing them to travel here and stay for an extended period of time.

Longer Stays for Parents

Parents are set to get a boost, with a long-term Visitor Visa, enabling them stay for years, rather than months.

The benefits are pretty obvious - support to migrant families in the form of no-cost childcare, and for many migrants the strength of the family unit they have always been used to.

However creating a long-term Visa for applicants who immediately fall in to a higher-risk category (health-wise) was always going to be a challenge. Election promises were made on a five-year Visa temporary Visa, but how temporary is a Visa that allows you stay for half a decade. Considering the target market for this Visa is those who are in their twilight years, the inevitable concerns over healthcare arise and also the concept of “parent dumping” where parents are invited here, but not supported by the children they are coming to join.

This means you have to consider things like mandatory insurance, break periods over the five years and checks that sponsors are living up to their end of the deal. You also need to negotiate a sponsorship requirement that makes sense and on the one hand, ensure parents are well looked after, but also isn’t prohibitive.

Add to this, the issue of working out what incentives parents will have to return to their home country at the end of five years (or longer if the Visa can be renewed) and you have one recipe for a complex set of policy designs.

Inevitably the decisions on how this will all pan out will come down to practical realities, resource constraints on the part of INZ and political will. Remember not everyone who campaigned on this pledge understands the inner workings of INZ or how a Visa actually functions on the ground floor,. and so what they have sold as part of their election pledges will have to be tempered with what can actually be delivered in a meaningful and sensible way.

In my humble opinion this pledge was a bit short-sighted on the part of all political parties. It sounds nice in theory but the practical realities of rolling out a Visa like this, that will inevitably lead to an avalanche of Ministerial requests for people to be able to stay permanently was ill-conceived. More thought could have been given to the existing Parent Residence Visa eligibility, to perhaps open that up with some healthcare caveats.

Ultimately what we end up with for the Parent Boost, won’t please everyone, but that is the nature of the Visa process, because no Visa is perfect. For many migrants living and working here, this will be the biggest news of 2025 and I expect we will hear something before the year is out.

The Golden Visa - Pays Dividends

The so called “Golden Visa” which actually carries the name “Active Investor Visa” was relaunched on 01 April, with shiny new wheels and more comfortable seats. A bit like a Tesla, the original Active Investor Visa was a good idea in principle, but there were bits missing or falling off and you were never really sure if the roof wasn’t about to disappear. The upgraded system is simpler, clearer and gives people options, delivered at almost the perfect time to capture the vast volumes of Americans, all fleeing for safer shores.

Investor Visas

The Investor Visa has taken flight, proving to be very popular amidst the current global economic chaos.

The uptake has been pretty encouraging with a lot of US nationals considering this as a pathway. We have yet to see the full onslaught, but the signs so far are very good.

However, the real test of a policy like this, is not whether it works in times of global strife (pretty much anything will) but whether it remains a consistent source of investment and human capital over the longer term.

I suspect it will, and once the first cohort of applicants moves through the process, once we revise the various tax rules that apply to foreign investors and potentially when NZ First rolls over on foreign nationals being able to buy property (even if just for these applicants), then I imagine this category will become a solid earner in terms of the NZ Visa program.

At the moment, we have the President of the United States doing all our marketing for us, and nervous investors with money tied up in the US are considering not only favourable exchanges rates to buy up NZD and NZ investments, but the relative safety that offshoring their funds might provide. Throw in quick and easy access to Hobbiton, some of the best beaches in the world and the amazing vistas that Queenstown can offer and its a pretty enticing package.

The Investor Visa has finally had the make-over it needed and as it becomes more widely understood, I can see interest from a much larger pool of countries increasing quite steadily. The US is currently the front-runner, but there is significant demand from Europe (Germany in particular) and Asia.

More Options For Skilled Migrants?

Then we come to the meat and three veg (vegetables) of our immigration system, the Skilled Migrant Category (SMC for short) - which is where we get our skilled, employable migrants, propping up the economic engine room. This category is probably the trickiest to change, because a) it is vital to the long-term sustainability of our immigration system, b) we compete with countries like Australia, Canada and the UK for talent, so the system has to be able to stand up against those destinations and c), it has so many moving parts in terms of the skills we really want, sort of want, could do without and aren’t really sure what to do with.

More Skilled Options

The Government should be making it easier for some trades, whilst also simplifying existing points systems.

One of the major flaws with the system as it stands today is the fact we have five different SMC systems, all aiming to do the same thing, but in different ways. We could very easily pull them all together under one roof, and one system to make policy easier to design and give us advisers a few less headaches to deal with.

One simple fix would be to roll everything under the points system and for those roles that have an existing pathway under the Green List, Straight to Residence, they could simply qualify for six points immediately and so nothing really changes. The Green List, Work to Residence pathways could similarly be included with four points and then two years of experience as could the Care and Transport Sector options. Five rolled in to one system, with less for everyone to read.

More importance could be placed on overseas work experience, previously dropped because INZ considered it “too hard” to verify. You don’t design policies around things that are easy but around things that make sense. People bringing years of offshore experience should be recognised for that, at least as equally as they are for having a degree. A bachelor degree completed 15 years ago is nowhere near as useful or as relevant as work experience obtained in the last five years - no matter what the occupation.

Rebalancing the points for various skills criteria and reducing the overall time needed to work in NZ to secure Residence would also help (to address the certainty issue), as would using Section 49 conditions in some fashion to grant Residence upfront with conditions for applicants to work here for a period of time.

All of these things could be helpful but we also need to address the gaping hole that exists for certain trade occupations - many of whom currently have no viable pathway to Residence. If we are going to invest heavily in infrastructure projects in NZ, we are going to need those tradespeople and the only way to get them is to offer the carrot of being able to live here permanently.

My guess is that the SMC system will also get a bit of a makeover as well, making it more competitive and more attractive for a wider pool of people - people we are going to need in time.

Entrepreneur Visas

Finally, the ugly duckling of the NZ Visa storybook - the Entrepreneur Work Visa Category (EW). This Visa has been long overdue for a complete rethink and apparently that is on its way. The successor to the Long-Term-Business-Visa (LTBV), the EWV sought to try and lift the game on people buying or establishing businesses here as a means to secure Residence.

Entrepreneur Visas

The ugly duckling in the Visa storybook, long overdue for a makeover.

The current category has a very vague set of criteria (on-purpose) allowing INZ to cherry pick the potential businesses that it thinks will be beneficial to New Zealand. The problem being that the kinds of businesses, INZ would like to see, are often set up here without an applicant being involved. Migrants looking to use this pathway are doing so, based on much smaller scale businesses, that are still potentially beneficial but don’t meet INZ’s moving targets in terms of criteria.

This policy could be a real win for NZ, if it were redesigned with some predictability and clear goals as to what it is trying to attract - good quality entrepreneurs with some capital and the ability to employ locals, creating a viable business and a decent pool of tax revenue. Simple really and we just need a policy that matches those end goals.

Want To Explore Your Options

If history (and my blogs) have taught the prospective migrant anything, it is that change in our immigration system is inevitable, but not all change is bad. My suspicions are that the next 12 months of change are going to signal a return to more liberal policies that capture a broader range of skilled, entrepreneurial people or those with money to invest. New Zealand sits precariously on the edge of a population decline and the only short-term way to solve that is to import the right people who can bring value and help to grow the economy.

Despite economic turbulence in the last two years, the current Government understands the need to keep the migrant tap open and there is a clear sign that things are opening up, not closing down. For those of you, who are contemplating the move, this is really important to understand because whilst change will always happen, the key factors that NZ is looking for - skills, investment and entrepreneurship remain the reasons why people will continue to qualify.

If you are thinking about NZ as your next step, then get in touch with the team today and hopefully we can help you find that new horizon.

Until next week…oh and happy Easter weekend!